Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 12.983414 14.839804 16.852943 19.196368 21.847451 24.751710 28.172677
2024-10-20 10.054937 12.496733 15.357185 18.948165 23.328373 28.490021 35.026407
2024-10-27 8.148040 10.691153 13.822325 17.948193 23.228122 29.743893 38.379543
2024-11-03 7.289012 10.024976 13.541844 18.373374 24.815947 33.085897 44.479116
2024-11-10 6.632713 9.502174 13.330536 18.782421 26.313192 36.310747 50.545533
2024-11-17 5.894210 8.769398 12.739661 18.583889 26.922192 38.337636 55.087086
2024-11-24 5.231097 8.061137 12.095773 18.219368 27.220850 39.897471 59.016612
2024-12-01 4.776719 7.604068 11.755344 18.235999 28.026704 42.175869 64.058819
2024-12-08 4.458425 7.315566 11.627063 18.536049 29.241472 45.085878 70.163770
2024-12-15 4.138769 6.990740 11.408516 18.666314 30.186066 47.625450 75.838052
2024-12-22 3.791132 6.586359 11.027467 18.501475 30.642976 49.427795 80.461979
2024-12-29 3.553052 6.338455 10.870681 18.672223 31.623890 52.072951 86.523804
2025-01-05 3.405208 6.236205 10.952437 19.253605 33.332303 56.008226 94.950136
2025-01-12 3.130423 5.889364 10.597790 19.076037 33.771627 57.925805 100.221587
2025-01-19 2.743267 5.305395 9.787248 18.047317 32.685918 57.247256 101.113681
2025-01-26 2.627770 5.206171 9.814776 18.482239 34.141939 60.890285 109.486539
2025-02-02 2.517406 5.105834 9.830113 18.891064 35.569539 64.553166 118.084335
2025-02-09 2.331096 4.843031 9.526919 18.692262 35.886543 66.295248 123.405923
2025-02-16 2.139961 4.553411 9.150242 18.325454 35.864394 67.423668 127.679315
2025-02-23 2.013294 4.381595 8.983622 18.342265 36.549934 69.847787 134.410121
2025-03-02 1.929797 4.290742 8.966327 18.643947 37.788174 73.337720 143.273008
2025-03-09 1.833139 4.163743 8.867224 18.774942 38.700617 76.265278 151.232546
2025-03-16 1.712704 3.975277 8.629591 18.609188 39.016497 78.079813 157.170794